# Part 1 Section B.3. Forecasting Techniques　業績予想のテクニック

## Using Leaning Curves in Forecasting

• ２つの学習曲線モデル
• The cumulative average-time learning model
• CMA試験に出題されるのはこっちだけ
• The incremental unit-time learning model
• 学習曲線モデルが用いられる例
• Purchases of materials
• Sub assembly production
• Delivery dates of finished products

● Method 1: Calculate the estimated total time required for production, then use the estimated total time to calculate the estimated cumulative average time per unit:

Estimated total time required
for all units produced =

Time required for the first unit × (2 × LC)n

Where:
LC = Learning curve percentage (in decimal format)
n = Number of doublings of units produced to date

● Method 2: Calculate the estimated cumulative average time per unit for all units produced, then use the estimated cumulative average time per unit to calculate the estimated total time required for all units produced:

Estimated cumulative average time
per unit for units produced =

Time required for the first unit × LCn

Where:
LC = Learning curve percentage (in decimal format)
n = Number of doublings of all units produced

the learning rate は、50% < LC < 100% の間に必ず入っている必要がある。

Section B 予算の編成・計画
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